US election: 3 days left – What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to

On Friday, the US presidential candidates campaigned in the key Midwestern swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, seeking to lure voters.
At rallies, Vice President Kamala Harris slammed former President Donald Trump for his remarks earlier this week suggesting that former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney, a staunch critic of Trump, should have “guns trained on her”. Trump has previously suggested that Cheney should face military tribunals.
Meanwhile, in his rallies, Trump insisted that the “guns” comment was a legitimate criticism of Cheney’s hawkish foreign policy stance: If she promoted wars, she should have to fight in them herself.
Nationally, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows Harris ahead by 1.3 points, as she has been for the past week, and roughly where she and Trump have been for the past few days – but at a much closer margin than the 2.8 percentage points she was ahead by exactly a month ago.
In critical swing states, which could determine the election outcome, the competition is even tighter.
Key battleground states include Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
FiveThirtyEight’s daily poll tracker indicates that Harris’s lead in Michigan is approximately 1 point. However, she has lost her lead in Nevada, where Trump now leads by 0.4 points.
In Wisconsin, her lead has risen to 0.8 points, up from 0.6 on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Trump’s advantage in Pennsylvania has shrunk from 0.7 points to 0.1 points. His lead in North Carolina continues and is now at 1.3 points. Trump is also ahead in Arizona by 2.1 points, and by 1.5 points in Georgia. However, all these gaps are within the margin of error for polls – so, in effect, the two candidates are in a dead heat across the swing states.

Harris spent her day in Wisconsin with events in Janesville, Little Chute, Madison and Milwaukee. Her events boasted singers GloRilla, Cardi B and Flo Milli.
She lambasted Trump over his verbal attack on Liz Cheney. Trump had attacked Cheney, suggesting the former legislator who has endorsed Harris in the race to the White House should face combat with guns trained on her for her policy stance.
“She’s a radical war hawk,” Trump said on Thursday at a campaign event with ex-Fox News television host Tucker Carlson in Glendale, Arizona, also calling Cheney “a deranged person” and “a very dumb individual”.
Harris described Cheney as “a true patriot” and said Trump’s increasing “violent rhetoric” should disqualify him from becoming president again.
“His enemies list has grown longer. His rhetoric has grown more extreme,” Harris told reporters after arriving in Madison, Wisconsin, one of her campaign stops on Friday. “And he is even less focused than before on the needs and the concerns and the challenges facing the American people.”
In her rallies, she also promised to build an economy for everyday people and listen to a wide range of voices, asking supporters to encourage family and friends to vote.
CNN has reported that the Harris campaign has changed its messaging on Israel’s war in Gaza, by highlighting different aspects of her position on Israel in separate advertisements targeting undecided Jewish and Arab voters.
One advertisement in Michigan, where Arab voters have expressed anger over the Biden-Harris administration’s provision of billions of dollars in military support for Israel’s war in Gaza, says Harris “will not be silent” about the suffering of the Palestinians.
Harris has however refused demands to cut off military aid to Israel, despite a litany of violations of international law by the US ally.
Another advertisement targeting potential Jewish voters in Pennsylvania promises that Harris will “stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself” and “defend our forces and our interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists”.
That video advertisement cuts out a section of her speech where Harris calls the suffering in Gaza “heartbreaking”.

At his rally in Milwaukee, about 16km (10 miles) from Harris’s rally, Trump was joined by Republican politicians and other supporters such as Robert F Kennedy Jr, before he took the stage for a speech that lasted for more than an hour.
He pledged to “prevent World War III”. He called Harris a “low-IQ individual” and said he would “end inflation”.
He also hyped up fears of undocumented immigrants.
“We want people to come into our country, we do. But they have to come in legally, through a system. They have to love us. They have to love our country,” Trump said.
And before he wrapped up his remarks, he made a final reference to his adversary during the rally: an uncooperative microphone.
“I don’t have to be here. But if I had my choice, I’d rather be right here with a broken-down s*** microphone in Wisconsin. I would rather be in Wisconsin than some beautiful beach.”
Trump’s campaign also insisted that the “guns” comment was a legitimate criticism of Cheney’s hawkish foreign policy stance: If she promoted wars, she should have to fight in them herself.
In Milwaukee, Trump also revisited his false claims of winning the 2020 election – even when the results say otherwise.
“You know, in 2016, I wanted to win Wisconsin so bad. He said it’s not doable,” Trump said, gesturing to former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson in the crowd.
“You are a very difficult state, but I won it. I did win it despite your difficulty. I actually won it twice, but these are minor details.”
Trump did not win Wisconsin twice. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden eked out a victory over Trump in the state.
Trump also held a brief private meeting with members of the Arab American community in the Detroit suburb of Dearborn, before holding a rally in Warren, Michigan.
Harris heads to Charlotte, North Carolina
On Saturday, Harris will head to the swing state of North Carolina for a rally in Charlotte. Her rally is once again expected to be a star-studded event with musicians Jon Bon Jovi and Khalid performing.
Democrats have not won a presidential race in North Carolina since 2008 and Harris is keen to turn the page.
At a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina on Wednesday, she insisted that the Democrats are “actually fighting for a democracy”.
One person could be heard during the rally trying to shout over Harris, but it is unclear what he was saying.
“Unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy,” she said as the crowd’s chants drowned out the protester’s voice. “He wants to put them in jail, I’ll give them a seat at the table.
“I pledge to be a president for all Americans and to always put country above party and self,” she added.
Trump also to visit Charlotte, North Carolina
Trump, who was in North Carolina on Wednesday, will also head to Charlotte on Saturday.
In 2020’s presidential race, Trump had his narrowest victory out of all 50 states in North Carolina. In the upcoming November 5 vote, polls once again show Trump with a tiny lead over his Democratic rival.
Paul Shumaker, a Republican operative, laid it out for Al Jazeera in stark terms: Republican registration started declining, while the number of “unaffiliated” voters gradually rose.
“Now there are no liberal Republicans left, and there are fewer moderate Republicans, too,” Shumaker said.
Political scientist Chris Cooper told Al Jazeera that North Carolina is “right on the razor’s edge between red and blue”.
But it is a third category – voters who identify neither as red nor blue – that may ultimately decide who wins.